In raw number terms, New South Wales is now the nation’s fastest growing state with Queensland handing over the mantle it has held since December 2001.

Over the 12 months to June 2009, New South Wales has seen the greatest number of new residents, adding 115,542 persons to its population. This is the first time since the September 2001 quarter New South Wales has recorded the greatest growth in population (on an annual basis). Between these two periods, Queensland has consistently recorded the greatest number of new residents. Although growth in Queensland has taken a back seat to that in New South Wales, Victoria (113,858 persons) and Queensland (112,908 persons) have still witnessed strong growth. Western Australia has also recorded a slight fall in annualised population growth during June 2009. After reaching a record 67,582 new residents during the year to March 2009, Western Australia recorded 65,704 new residents to June 2009.

The last 12 months has seen the national population increase by an amazing 443,139 persons at a rate of 1.7%. In percentage terms, Western Australia leads the way, growing at an annual rate of 3.03%. Meanwhile, Tasmania (1.02%) and South Australia (1.21%) are recording the slowest rate of annual population growth.

Over the 12 months to June 2009 net migration (arrivals vs. departures) was recorded at 285,347 persons. This was the strongest level of net overseas migration during the period 1981 to 2009. Although skilled migration numbers have been cut in the most recent Federal Budget, other types of migration are increasing. Meanwhile overseas departures data suggests that the number of Australian’s moving abroad is falling with job prospects much better in Australia than most other parts of the world residents appear to be choosing to delay their move overseas.

The rate of natural increase (or births minus deaths) has eased recently but still remains at a very high level. Over the last 12 months there was 157,972 more babies born than resident that passed away. The recent decline in natural increase has been caused by a slight fall in the birth rate with death rates actually falling.

The national fertility rate now sits at 1.98 children and it has been steadily increasing in recent years after sitting at 1.72 children in 2003-04.

In their most recent estimates, the ABS suggests that the average household has 2.5 persons within. Given this, in order to cater to the population growth of 443,139 persons Australia would have needed to find an additional 176,549 dwellings during the 12 months to June 2009. Over the 12 month period there was only 130,642 new dwellings commenced, a short fall of 45,907.

Dwelling approvals and commencements tend to have a close correlation with dwellings usually being commenced very shortly after approval. Although approvals have increased slightly in recent months and population growth has dipped, there remains a large disconnect between the rate of population growth and the rate of approvals for new dwellings.

The situation is in fact worse, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor Ric Battelino recently pointed out in a speech that around 15% of commencements were directly replacing those homes which have been demolished. He also stated that there were 8% more dwellings than households, indicating that these were presumably holiday homes or second houses.

In effect these results suggest that instead of the 176,549 dwelling commencements, Australia actually needed to commence closer to 217,000 dwellings in order to cater to our growing population. Alternatively, those with second homes would have to sell their additional housing assets for others to permanently reside in, in order to help bring the number of commencements required closer to equilibrium with actual demand.

With figures like these and an environment where we have had the lowest interest rates in almost 50 years, it’s no surprise we have seen 10% growth in home values to date during 2009. Let’s hope Government’s can correct their policies and start delivering more housing to cater to our growing population which would likely remove some of the upwards pressure on property prices, particularly in capital cities.